The Times : At last, a final sign of sense as Pervez Musharraf tries to put the elections back on track

At last, a final sign of sense as Pervez Musharraf tries to put the elections back on track

Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing | From The Times | November 6, 2007

Pervez Musharraf made his first sensible move for three days in suggesting that parliamentary elections might go ahead as planned in January.

That may be a sign that he is listening to the appalled reaction, at home and abroad, to his state of emergency. But Britain and the US, the countries best placed to make that case, have very few levers to pull, officials quietly acknowledge, unless they want to ditch Musharraf as President – and at this point, they don’t.

Their reflex in favour of the devil they know is justifiable provided that Musharraf brings Pakistan immediately back to the schedule for elections. But the status quo is not stable; the past three days are the unsurprising climax to the crises of the past six months.

Pakistan has often shown an impressive self-righting ability after crisis. But Musharraf’s actions are a gift to the militants and, however risky, the mantra of recent US policy appears right: democracy is the only good answer.

Yesterday Musharraf appeared to offer a half-concession, as Malik Qayyum, his Attorney-General, said that “it has been decided there would be no delay in the election”. He added that national and provincial assemblies would be dissolved by November 15 and that elections would be held within 60 days.

But this contradicted the earlier view of Shaukat Aziz, the Prime Minister, that elections were likely to be put off by a year or two. Yesterday Aziz still left room for a delay, saying that “the next general elections will be held according to the schedule or a programme that will be finalised after consultation with all the stakeholders”.

Aziz, a smooth former Citibanker, and a technocrat brought in by Musharraf to reassure investors, should win a prize for evasive vocabulary; by his ludicrous use of “stakeholder”, he cannot mean the heads of the main political parties, or the seven justices (of 11) of the Supreme Court whom Musharraf sacked on Saturday, never mind the 165 million people of Pakistan.

Musharraf, in meeting foreign ambassadors yesterday, also tried to strike a conciliatory tone. State-run television reported him as telling them: “I’m determined to remove my uniform once we correct these pillars in the judiciary and the executive and the parliament.” By “correcting the judiciary”, he seems to mean removing the majority on the Supreme Court that were likely to say this week that his carefully choreographed reelection last month was unconstitutional.

It is in character for Musharraf, after striking out inappropriately, to try to pretend that it is business as usual. But it isn’t. He has almost no support left, even in the Army, although so far, it is following his orders. He dismissed rumours that officers had put him under house arrest as “a joke of the highest order”. But if protests grow, officers may not want to suppress them; the Army is already unpopular and demoralised after killing militants in the tribal areas (and losing 1,000 men in the process). Soldiers say that they no longer like wearing uniforms in public.

Britain and the US said yesterday that they had no plans to cut back aid for fear of depriving regions desperately in need of help. In the US, however, in an election year, Congress will have plenty to say and may try to force cuts under laws curbing aid to governments that have carried out coups. In 2001 President Bush secured an exception for Pakistan on the grounds that it was helping in the War on Terror and Musharraf had promised elections. But if that prospect fades, so may US cash.

The US has also been trying quietly to strengthen ties with Afghanistan’s neighbours, partly as protection for its military supply routes if turmoil in Pakistan gets worse. Admiral William Fallon, head of US Central Command, was in Kyrgyzstan on Monday.

The US and Britain may also try to lever Nawaz Sharif, the exiled leader of the Pakistan Muslim League, one of the two big parties, back into politics. Yesterday his brother, Shahbaz, said that Nawaz, now in Saudi Arabia, hoped to return to London soon and that he might even resurrect an alliance with Benazir Bhutto, leader of the rival Pakistan People’s Party. The US and Britain can signal their approval for these steps. But their influence is slim, given that they have backed a military leader, a hot-headed one at that, and even after six months of serious misjudgments, still prefer him to the unknown.

— Additional reporting: Hattie Garlick