Daily Times : Editorial: The ‘Nawaz Sharif factor’

Editorial: The ‘Nawaz Sharif factor’

November 24, 2007

In the latest development in the wake of General Pervez Musharraf’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the exiled ex-prime minister and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PMLN), Mr Nawaz Sharif, is to arrive in Pakistan soon — according to some party sources, in a couple of days. There is a lot of speculation about the sort of “deal” that materialised during the general’s visit making possible the return of Mr Sharif. The most convincing version, in the light of the past behaviour of the Saudi government, is that the Saudis put their foot down and told the general that Mr Sharif could not be kept out of Pakistan while Ms Benazir Bhutto was reaping the advantage of being in the thick of national politics.

Until now Mr Sharif has stood at the head of the “rejectionist-confrontationist” view that is now fast eroding. There was a time when opinion surveys placed him at the top of the winners’ list in the proposed elections by a big margin. He was lionised for not submitting to the ignominy of a “deal” with the general while Ms Bhutto was pushed down the list of favourites for abandoning the hard line she had adopted in the Charter of Democracy she signed under the banner of Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD). Indeed, growing disenchanted with Ms Bhutto’s constant “dialogue” with the general, he had called an all parties conference in London and emerged once again at the top of an All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) challenging the general with an ultimate boycott of the January elections.

But Mr Sharif faced difficulties on a number of counts. His original party, the PML, had been hijacked by the general, and only a rump was left with him that sought to remain in the public eye through the politics of denunciation and rejection. Meanwhile, two major parties, the PPP and Jamiat Ulema Islam Fazl (JUIF), decided to be flexible in the face of General Musharraf’s challenge and parted ways with the APDM, in the process causing setbacks to Mr Sharif and the leader of the Jamaat-e-Islami, Qazi Hussain Ahmad and Imran Khan. His next step was bold and could have worked to reverse the setback: he decided to return to Pakistan and create a new political situation to make the general and his party go on the defensive.

The real and final political disaster happened when his party failed to mobilise a public rally on the day of his arrival at the Islamabad airport. On the other hand, when Ms Bhutto arrived in Karachi, defying advice from the general, the welcome she received from her party was historic in many ways. The tables were turned. Suddenly, in place of the PMLN, the PPP became the challenger of the status quo. The public view swung once again in favour of Ms Bhutto. She began to give less and less slack to the general on issues relating to the elections and took him on frontally after the imposition of Emergency and the PCO. But she never crossed the Rubicon of boycotting the elections. Paradoxically, her “contradictions” have eclipsed the “consistency” of Mr Sharif.

Now the boot is on the other foot. It is Mr Sharif who has done a deal with the Saudis and the Musharraf regime, enabling him to come back along with his family and contest the elections. But Mr Sharif will have a tough time mobilising support for his party. His vote is divided between the ruling PML and Jamaat-e-Islami. The PML is firmly entrenched in Punjab on the basis of governance and the usual Punjabi politics of “spoils” and will only be challenged in the south of the province by the PPP. The Jamaat has been cruelly dealt with by the JUIF in the clerical alliance MMA and has just suffered a setback in Lahore in the shape of a students’ revolt against its students’ wing. Meanwhile, General Musharraf is playing his “positive” cards in quick succession. He will soon step down from his post of the army chief, he has announced the elections on January 8, he has lifted the ban on almost all the TV channels, he will lift the Emergency now that he has secured his advantage through seven constitutional amendments, and he can count on international support.

The decline of Mr Sharif has come from the decision already gelling among the political parties not to boycott the elections. His party can no longer afford to boycott the polls because staying out will keep him out of the contention without giving him any future advantage.