ISN (Switz.) : Pakistan: Emergency and chaos

Pakistan: Emergency and chaos

General Pervez Musharraf's quest for unlimited power poses serious questions for US policymakers as the nuclear-armed nation slides into anarchy amid threats of Talibanization and political chaos.

Naveed Ahmad | ISN Security Watch | Islamabad | November 22, 2007

A whirlwind visit by US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte has had little effect on the situation in Pakistan. Despite Washington's advice, martial law has not been lifted and the constitution has not been revived. In the meantime, Musharraf's army remains engaged in a controversial campaign against the so-called local Taliban in the picturesque Swat mountains as the Pakistani strongman announces a schedule for critical general elections.

In contravention of Negroponte's demands, the judiciary and media remain the prime targets of Musharraf's second martial law.

Failing to find the required 17 judges for a new Supreme Court - one loyal to Musharraf - the court has been reduced to 12 judges, all of whom have taken an oath of allegiance to the general. Further striking at the court's authority, Musharraf on Wednesday promulgated a presidential decree establishing that no court could rule on the imposition of the 3 November state emergency.

"Even his own hand-picked judges do not enjoy Musharraf's confidence and cannot take up a petition challenging his decision to suspend the constitution," Abdullah Dogar, a senior lawyer at the Supreme Court, told ISN Security Watch in a telephone interview from the provincial capital Lahore.

The independent-minded Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and other judges have been under house arrest since 3 November, when they ruled that Musharraf's second martial law and suspension of the constitution was illegal and unwarranted.

As Negroponte arrived in Islamabad 17 November, on orders from Musharraf top Pakistani networks Geo TV and ARY Digital were taken off the air by authorities in Dubai, where their transmissions originate.

The two broadcasters already had been taken out of Pakistan's cable line-up, and the latest action means their signals are no long available by satellite. However, the Geo News website has so far evaded the government effort to block it from streaming news bulletins.

While Islamabad has announced the release of political prisoners, protesting journalists have faced brutal baton charges and arrests. In the coastal metropolis of Karachi alone over 200 journalists were arrested earlier this month.

A week before imposing a state of emergency across the country, Musharraf launched a military operation in Swat, invoking Western fears of a Taliban backlash in Pakistan. So far, dozens of people have been killed and thousands displaced while media has had little access to the situation on the ground.

"The Swat operation is Musharraf's advertising campaign for the American audience," Roedad Khan, a veteran bureaucrat and civil society activist, told ISN Security Watch. He questioned the timing of the military campaign.

However, breaking with tradition, Musharraf may be unsuccessful in pleasing Taliban-wary observers this time around, especially ahead of general elections at a time when the public is highly critical of what it views as Islamabad's image as a puppet of Washington.
Eleventh-hour allies

In the meantime, a majority of political parties have rejected the 8 January date set for general elections. Both liberal and Islamist parties are seeking a restoration of the constitution, the lifting of curbs on the media and the re-establishment of the Election Commission before any polls are allowed to take place.

The Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP), led by Benazir Bhutto, has yet to decide whether it will participate in the 8 January polls. Top Islamist leader Qazi Hussain Ahmad is in talks with other opposition parties in his bid to boycott the elections.

Nawaz Sharif, the two-time prime minister exiled in Saudi Arabia, spoke to ISN Security Watch via telephone earlier this week. "We do not desire to participate in these sham elections under Musharraf," he said. His party is seeking a unified boycott decision from all opposition parties.

"We would boycott the polls if Ms Bhutto agreed to do the same," Qazi Hussain told a Lahore press conference.

Under pressure from Washington to reach a power-sharing agreement with Bhutto, Musharraf revived contact with the former prime minister following Negroponte's visit.

"The PPP response has been positive but their demands are increasing by the day," a top political aide to Musharraf told ISN Security Watch on the condition of anonymity.

The source said he believed that the PPP would not boycott the forthcoming elections regardless of a decision by the other opposition parties.

A September survey by the Washington-based International Republican Institute forecast that the two moderate opposition parties would win 64 percent of the vote in a free and fair poll. The conservative Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid is predicted to garner 16 percent of the vote. All the religious parties combined would win barely 15 percent. The same poll showed that 74 percent opposed Musharraf's re-election.

However, with now a dozen handpicked figures sitting as Supreme Court judges, the general may get the much-needed walkover toward a new term in the presidency.

After recent critical statements by Bhutto, Musharraf is not too comfortable with his US-backed ally. He traveled to Riyadh 20 November in a bid to invoke Saudi pressure on Sharif for a power-sharing formula, but the defiant exiled politician refused to meet the general, forcing him to cut short his visit and return to the negotiating table with Bhutto.

Since Negroponte's visit, the US Embassy has been carrying out ground work to revive a broad-based political alliance between Musharraf's league and Bhutto's PPP.

The former prime minister's strength originates from the mounting international pressure on the general to lift curbs on the media and the judiciary and restore the fundamental rights of the people.
Commonwealth lashes out at Musharraf

The country is facing the risk of the suspension of its membership in the 53-nation Commonwealth bloc for the second time since October 1999 for significantly undermining basic rights. Islamabad was welcomed back into the fold on the condition that Musharraf would doff his military uniform - a promise that has gone unfulfilled.

"Pakistan under Musharraf's emergency rule has no place in the Commonwealth," the Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative said in a statement.

A bloc statement said that if General Musharraf did not meet the group's demand by a 22 November meeting on the eve of a bloc summit in Uganda, then Pakistan's membership would be suspended.

Fiji was excluded from the Commonwealth last year following a military coup, while Zimbabwe was banned in 2002.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour told reporters in New York that the restoration of Pakistan's judiciary was as important as the holding of elections.

"Not only is the election process an important one, but the restoration of the judiciary I think is equally important," she said in an interview for US media. She also called on Pakistan to lift the state of emergency "in plenty of time to create an environment conducive to free and fair elections."

Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, executive director of think-tank Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, questions the entire election schedule. "We believe little time has been given for the parties to decide about participating in the 2008 elections under emergency," Ahmed told ISN Security Watch.

Other civil society circles term Musharraf's hurriedly called elections yet another ploy to stay in power while invoking fears in the West of growing pro-Taliban sentiments in the troubled North-West Frontier Province.

"Unlike 2002 elections, this time credibility is hard to come by for the actions taken by the tyrant general," Asma Jehangir, a Pakistani human rights activist who was recently released from custody by the government, told ISN Security Watch in a telephone interview from Lahore.
Questioning US intentions

Ignoring Bhutto's call for a suspension of military aid to Pakistan, US President George W Bush continues to back Musharraf, raising renewed questions over Washington's commitment to the country's democratic transition.

A significant number of lawyers released from custody on Monday, face treason charges while protesting students have been threatened with expulsion from educational institutions.

Cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, who is attempting to mobilize a youth movement against the military regime, finds US policy on Pakistan faltering yet again.

"The general has not only failed to curb terrorism but his self-centric policies have rather fueled extremism throughout the country," he told ISN Security Watch in a telephone interview.

Musharraf may quit his army chief office in the next few days when he is formally sworn in for a fresh term as president, but the decision heavily depends on a revived deal with Bhutto.

Every day, the Pakistan print media is flooded with advice for Washington, calling on the US State Department to feel the pulse of the people and "trust the public verdict instead of imposing a paranoid and insecure general."

Tariq Fatemi, a retired senior diplomat, wrote in Pakistan's Dawn newspaper on 22 November, "If the US wants to be viewed as a friend of Pakistan, it needs to appreciate that only a genuine civilian elected democratic dispensation can enjoy the legitimacy."

Naveed Ahmad is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Besides reporting for Pakistani TV channel, Geo News and Germany's DW-TV, he is also a special correspondent for McClatchy Newspapers group in the US.