Tennessean : 'Lone wolves' no longer viewed as highest terror threat

Saturday, August 18, 2007

'Lone wolves' no longer viewed as highest terror threat

'Bunch of guys' can egg each other on to violence

By JOSH MEYER | Los Angeles Times | August 17, 2007

CHICAGO — After more than a decade of warning that the greatest threat of homegrown terrorism for the United States came from individual "lone wolf" radicals, the FBI and other law enforcement agencies have begun focusing on a greater threat — small, anonymous groups of disaffected men who radicalize each other and turn toward violence.

Federal officials say that most of the domestic terrorist threats now under active investigation involve such groups, though they continue to rank al-Qaida as the greatest danger globally.

Known among counterterrorism officials as BOGs, for "bunch of guys," or GOGs, for "group of guys," the cells may offer greater opportunities for detection and infiltration than the lone wolf threat because they are more numerous and most members are amateurs.

They present daunting challenges as well. They are difficult to detect because most lack formal structure or prominent leaders and have little or no contact with al-Qaida or other known terrorist organizations. They can plan multiple attacks, use varied weapons and tactics, and draw on a wider range of resources than an individual could, officials say.

More vexing still, authorities say, is the dynamic at work inside these groups. Most members start out as merely alienated and angry. They tend to radicalize and egg each other on with the help of the Internet, increasing the likelihood of talk turning into action. Yet it's difficult to know which of the many such groups — some as small as two or three individuals — will go all the way to launching an attack.

'Self-radicalize' quickly

They form so spontaneously and "self-radicalize" so quickly that the first sign of their existence might be an attack, Samuel J. Rascoff of the New York Police Department said at a recent counterterrorism summit meeting in Florence, Italy.

Rascoff, director of intelligence analysis for the New York Police Department, said that BOGs could "serve as an echo chamber," amplifying the influence of the most radical members.

"There is no useful profile to assist law enforcement or intelligence to predict who will follow this trajectory of radicalization. Rather, the individuals who take this course begin as 'unremarkable' from various walks of life," the New York Police Department said in a report released Wednesday.

"It is a phenomenon that occurs because the individual is looking for an identity and a cause and unfortunately, often finds them in extremist Islam," according to the report.

Some defense lawyers and other critics say the threat is overblown, and often arises from law enforcement informants who entrap or even push small-time troublemakers into plotting attacks.

Muslims now suspect

"There are very many cases in which the informants are the ones creating the terrorist plots," said Rocco C. Cipparone Jr., a defense lawyer in one small-group case.

The Council on American-Islamic Relations said the New York report may result in all U.S. Muslims being viewed with suspicion. The report's "sweeping generalizations and mixing of unrelated elements may serve to cast a pall of suspicion over the entire American Muslim community," Parvez Ahmed, chairman of the council's board, said in a statement.

Authorities cite the case of Derrick Shareef, a young Muslim convert, to illustrate the small group threat. Shareef was arrested near Chicago in December for allegedly plotting to use hand grenades to attack holiday shoppers.

Two accused of plotting

Originally, authorities thought Shareef was a loner. Now, they allege that he was plotting with another American Muslim convert who allegedly had ties to terrorists in the United Kingdom. The two were discussing a variety of targets and tactics, including sniper attacks on U.S. troops and assaults on military recruiting stations, a federal prosecutor said at a July 28 court hearing.

The new view of Shareef resembles alleged plots against the Fort Dix Army base in New Jersey and John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York in the spring, and Chicago's Sears Tower in June 2006, authorities say.