Reuters : U.S. sees "precarious" year for Iraqi government

U.S. sees "precarious" year for Iraqi government

By Randall Mikkelsen | August 23, 2007

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government will become more precarious over the next 6-12 months, while security will improve modestly even as sectarian violence remains high, U.S. intelligence agencies said on Thursday.

Declassified findings of the National Intelligence Estimate said there had been "measurable but uneven improvements" in Iraqi security since January, under the U.S. troop increase ordered by Republican President George W. Bush this year.

U.S. political leaders have assailed Maliki's ability to govern Iraq. The unpopular war has featured prominently in the campaign for the November 2008 presidential election with Democrats and some Republicans urging a U.S. troop withdrawal.

The report cast doubt on Maliki's ability to heal sectarian divides as specified by U.S. milestones for progress.

"Broadly accepted political compromises required for sustained security, long-term political progress and economic development are unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments," it said.

The Office of the National Intelligence Director issued the report a day after Bush sought to correct impressions his support for Maliki was wavering and ahead of a mid-September assessment by the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, and the top U.S. commander there, Gen. David Petraeus.

The evaluation by Crocker and Petraeus is widely seen as the potential trigger for a change in U.S. policy in Iraq.

SECTARIAN VIOLENCE

The intelligence report said criticisms of the Iraqi government from factions within the major Shi'ite coalition, as well as Sunni and Kurdish parties, will add to the uncertainty over the Maliki government.

"The Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next 6-12 months," the report said.

It said U.S.-led forces supported by Iraqi troops will contribute to modest improvements in security.

But it said "levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance."

Bush had hailed Maliki as "the right guy for Iraq" when the two stood side by side last November in Jordan, but doubts within the U.S. administration have been growing.

A November memo by National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley cited concerns that Maliki "is either ignorant of what is going on, misrepresenting his intentions, or that his capabilities are not yet sufficient to turn his good intentions into action."

Bush on Tuesday voiced frustrations with the Iraqi leadership but on Wednesday called Maliki "a good man with a difficult job."

Opposition has also grown within the Democrat-led U.S. Congress. Michigan Sen. Carl Levin, a Democrat who heads the Armed Services Committee, said this week that Maliki's government should be voted out of power.

Maliki bristled at the criticism this week, saying no one outside Iraq had a right to set timetables for progress.

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