UPI : Experts: Pakistan most likely next al-Q HQ

Experts: Pakistan most likely next al-Q HQ

August 21, 2007

WASHINGTON, Aug. 21 (UPI) -- Pakistan, not Iraq, is the nation most likely to be the next al-Qaida sanctuary, according to a poll of more than 100 bipartisan U.S. terror experts.

The “Terrorism Index” survey, carried out by the Center for American Progress and Foreign Policy magazine, found that 35 percent of the experts believed that Pakistan “is most likely to become the next al-Qaida stronghold,” compared with 22 percent who named Iraq.

Somalia was third-placed with 11 percent, followed by Sudan and Afghanistan with 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively.

Chillingly, nearly three-quarters of the experts (74 percent) also named Pakistan as the country “most likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists in the next three to five years.”

North Korea was the next most widely named, by 42 percent, with Russia -- another U.S. ally in its war on terror -- rated the top risk by 38 percent.

Iran, the country most widely cited by Bush administration officials as a proliferation-to-terrorists risk, came in fourth with 31 percent.

Five percent believed that any nuclear technology obtained by terrorists in the next few years would likely come from the United States.

“But if there is a wide consensus about the dangers that Pakistan poses, there is very little agreement about what to do about it,” the Terrorism Index’s authors said in a statement.

More than half of those surveyed believe the administration’s current policy toward Pakistan is having a negative impact on U.S. national security.

Less than a third of the experts polled favor threatening Pakistan with sanctions -- about the same number as support increasing U.S. aid to the country.

“Such a muddled response underscores the puzzle that Pakistan presents to American policymakers,” conclude the authors.

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