NDTV L Pakistan's political situation in a flux

Pakistan's political situation in a flux

Munizae Jehangir | August 12, 2007

(Lahore) -- This week Pakistan came dangerously close to emergency but a phone call from close ally the US changed all that. However, it has to be seen whether President Musharraf has changed his mind only for the time being.

Given the precarious political situation and trouble on the Pakistan-Afghan border, emergency now seems to be one of the few choices confronting a man who seems to be desperate to hang on to power.

Much has been said about how a 17-minute phone call between Condoleezza Rice and President Musharraf led to a categorical denial of these reports by Musharraf's cabinet. But what has emerged after the overnight drama are divisions within.

''Ok if that call was helpful in the process, I think the US should be appreciated in that because it was a sensible decision,'' said Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed, Secretary, General PML (Q).

''But let me tell you, before that there were voices raised within our own PML (Q) myself included, which vociferously opposed any such move. It would destabilize the country which has just recovered from the 133 day old judicial crises so it will galvanize the opposition and it would destabilize the political process,'' he added.

Pervez Musharraf is constitutionally bound to end his innings as president and Chief of Army Staff in the next three months. But from all accounts the General is in no mood to surrender.

Rising radicalism

It's not the first time, there has been talk of an emergency before, after all it's allowed by the constitution. Analysts close to the establishment feel it's a sign that Musharraf already weakened by the lawyers' movement and rising radicalism might be finally cracking under pressure.

''My own view is that the army would be sensitive to the criticism and they would therefore move in a way they can undermine the attacks on them,'' said Dr Shirin Mazari, Director General, Institute of Strategic Studies.

''They can restore the public confidence and so on and where criticism is reduced and one way of doing it of course is with the holding of fair and free elections,'' she added.

But the question is whether the military president will abide by the constitutional deadline or will he challenge it and take on a judiciary he's already drawn battle lines with?

''There is no guarantee that General Musharraf will do that. So far the signs have not been encouraging,'' said Ali Dayan Hassan, Political Analyst.

''The recent incident of speculation surrounding the imposition of state of emergency and the government backtracking on this decision shows a level of disarray and confusion that is prevalent in the corridors of power in Pakistan today,'' he added.

Weekend reports now suggest that a ''confidential'' deal between the president and former PM Benazir Bhutto is close to the finish. A deal that would help him retain power and clear her of corruption charges so she can return to Pakistan without fear of legal action.

Few people know exactly what happens in the corridors of power in Islamabad. But one thing is certain, the lawyer's movement and the increasing domestic political pressures have tilted the power balance.

Now it has become difficult for any Pakistani leader to ignore the mood on the streets and to take unpopular decisions.