Foreign Policy : The Terrorism Index (III)

The Terrorism Index

In the third Terrorism Index, more than 100 of America’s most respected foreign-policy experts see a world that is growing more dangerous, a national security strategy in disrepair, and a war in Iraq that is alarmingly off course.

September/October 2007

Americans are thinking more about the war on terror than ever before. But that doesn’t mean they’ve come to see this issue in the black-and-white terms preferred by many elected leaders. The combination of bloody wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, continued terrorist attacks from Britain to Somalia, and a presidential election in which candidates are defining themselves based on how they would stare down the threats has many seeing shades of gray. Six years after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, just 29 percent of Americans believe the United States is winning the war on terror—the lowest percentage at any point since 9/11. But Americans also consider themselves safe. Six in 10 say that they do not believe another terrorist attack is imminent. Likewise, more than 60 percent of Americans now say that the decision to invade Iraq was a mistake. Yet around half report that they would support similar military action to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Such seemingly incompatible points of view may stem in part from the fact that we are increasingly asked to reconcile a bewildering array of threats—and a nebulous enemy that defies convention. In Iraq, for instance, the same surge in U.S. forces that is meant to help pacify Baghdad only escalates violence elsewhere in the country. In the broader Middle East and South Asia, some of the same countries that are now the United States’ most crucial allies have also been guilty of cultivating the very terrorists we look to bring to justice. Deciphering priorities from such difficult paradoxes can be hard. So, how can one determine whether the war on terror is making America safer or more dangerous?

To find out, FOREIGN POLICY and the Center for American Progress once again turned to the very people who have run the United States’ national security apparatus during the past half century. Surveying more than 100 of America’s top foreign-policy experts—Republicans and Democrats alike—the FOREIGN POLICY/Center for American Progress Terrorism Index is the only comprehensive, nonpartisan effort to mine the highest echelons of the nation’s foreign-policy establishment for its assessment of how the United States is fighting the war on terror. First released in July 2006, and again last February, the index attempts to draw definitive conclusions about the war’s priorities, policies, and progress. Its participants include people who have served as secretary of state, national security advisor, senior White House aides, top commanders in the U.S. military, seasoned intelligence professionals, and distinguished academics. Eighty percent of the experts have served in the U.S. government—including more than half in the Executive Branch, 32 percent in the military, and 21 percent in the intelligence community.

The world these experts see today is one that continues to grow more threatening. Fully 91 percent say the world is becoming more dangerous for Americans and the United States, up 10 percentage points since February. Eighty-four percent do not believe the United States is winning the war on terror, an increase of 9 percentage points from six months ago. More than 80 percent expect a terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11 within a decade, a result that is more or less unchanged from one year ago.

On the positive side, many of the key agencies charged with ensuring the United States’ national security appear to be getting better at their job. Six of nine agencies, including the Departments of State and Defense, scored above average on the experts’ scale of 0 to 10. One year ago, only one agency scored above average. The National Security Agency fared the best, with an average ranking of 6.6. Many of the policies that these agencies pursue, however, did not fare as well. Nearly every foreign policy of the U.S. government—from domestic surveillance activities and the detention of terrorist suspects at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, to U.S. energy policies and efforts in the Middle East peace process—was sharply criticized by the experts. More than 6 in 10 experts, for instance, believe U.S. energy policies are negatively affecting the country’s national security. The experts were similarly critical of the CIA’s rendition of terrorist suspects to countries known to torture prisoners and the Pentagon’s policy of trying detainees before military tribunals.

No effort of the U.S. government was more harshly criticized, however, than the war in Iraq. In fact, that conflict appears to be the root cause of the experts’ pessimism about the state of national security. Nearly all—92 percent—of the index’s experts said the war in Iraq negatively affects U.S. national security, an increase of 5 percentage points from a year ago. Negative perceptions of the war in Iraq are shared across the political spectrum, with 84 percent of those who describe themselves as conservative taking a dim view of the war’s impact. More than half of the experts now oppose the White House’s decision to “surge” additional troops into Baghdad, a remarkable 22 percentage-point increase from just six months ago. Almost 7 in 10 now support a drawdown and redeployment of U.S. forces out of Iraq.

Chastened by the fighting in Iraq, the U.S national security community also appears eager not to make the same mistakes elsewhere. For instance, though a majority—83 percent—do not believe Tehran when it says its nuclear program is intended for peaceful, civilian purposes, just 8 percent favor military strikes in response. Eight in 10, on the other hand, say the United States should use either sanctions or diplomatic talks to negotiate an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Similarly, a majority of the experts favor some kind of engagement with groups that may be labeled terrorist organizations but have gained popular support at the ballot box, such as Hamas in the Palestinian Territories or Hezbollah in Lebanon. It’s one indication that, after six years, we may be entering a new chapter in the war on terror.

The Failing Surge

The outcome of the war in Iraq may now rest in large part on the success or failure of the so-called surge. Beginning in February, the White House sent an additional 28,000 U.S. troops to Baghdad in an effort to quell the violence there. Securing the capital with overwhelming force is a key component of the anti-insurgency plan developed by Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq and the military’s foremost expert on counterinsurgency tactics. It took until June for all the U.S. forces to be put in place, and the number of American troops in Iraq is now at its highest level since 2005. But is Petraeus’s plan working?

The index’s experts don’t think so. More than half say the surge is having a negative impact on U.S. national security, up 22 percentage points from just six months ago. This sentiment was shared across party lines, with 64 percent of conservative experts saying the surge is having either a negative impact or no impact at all. When the experts were asked to grade the government’s handling of the Iraq war, the news was even worse. They gave the overall effort in Iraq an average point score of just 2.9 on a 10-point scale. The government’s public diplomacy record was the only policy that scored lower.

These negative opinions may result in part from the experts’ apparent belief that, a decade from now, the world will still be reeling from the consequences of the war. Fifty-eight percent of the index’s experts say that in 10 years’ time, Sunni-Shiite tensions in the Middle East will have dramatically increased. Thirty-five percent believe that Arab dictators will have been discouraged from reforming. Just 5 percent, on the other hand, believe that al Qaeda will be weaker, whereas only 3 percent believe Iraq will be a beacon of democracy in the Middle East. If true, the surge, or any other tactical shift for that matter, was probably already too little, too late.

A Perfect Nightmare

A perfect terrorist storm may be brewing in Pakistan. When asked to choose the nation that is most likely to become the next al Qaeda stronghold, more experts chose Pakistan than any other country, including Iraq. Osama bin Laden reportedly remains at large along Pakistan’s mountainous border with Afghanistan, where al Qaeda is also regrouping; the country’s intelligence service is said to be still cooperating with radical Islamist elements; and President Pervez Musharraf’s political future seems increasingly imperiled. These developments would not be as worrisome had the experts not also said that Pakistan is the country most likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists in the next three to five years. Together, it’s a terrifying combination.

But if there is a wide consensus about the dangers that Pakistan poses, there is very little agreement about what to do about it. A modest number of the index’s experts, fewer than 1 in 3, favors threatening Pakistan with sanctions. Yet about the same number support increasing U.S. aid to the country. Such a muddled response underscores the puzzle that Pakistan presents to American policymakers. What is clear is that the experts do not favor more of the same: More than half of those surveyed believe the current U.S. policy toward Pakistan is having a negative impact on U.S. national security. Getting the strategy right could be critical if the world is to keep those dark clouds from forming.

Will the Enemy Follow Us Home?

It may be the most common—and, for many, the most convincing—argument against a quick exit from Iraq: Pulling American forces out would only move the war’s front line from the streets of Baghdad to the streets of Anytown, U.S.A. Or, as President George W. Bush often says, “The enemy would follow us home.”

Or would it? It’s a scenario that the index’s experts say is unlikely. Only 12 percent believe that terrorist attacks would occur in the United States as a direct result of a U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq. Eighty-eight percent of the experts said that either such a scenario was unlikely or that they see no connection between a troop withdrawal from Iraq and terrorist attacks inside the United States. This line of thinking was consistent across party lines, with 58 percent of conservatives saying they did not believe terrorist attacks would occur at home as a result of a military drawdown in Iraq.

That could explain why a bipartisan majority, 68 percent, of the experts favor redeploying U.S. forces from Iraq during the next 18 months. Although most oppose an immediate pullout, the situation in Iraq has deteriorated to the point that 1 in 5 experts, including 25 percent of conservatives, now favor an immediate withdrawal. If opinion continues to move in this direction, it will become much harder to explain why the troops aren’t homeward bound.

The Next Front

Raging violence in Iraq has raised the specter that similar savagery could bleed over into neighboring countries. Many have feared that there could be a spillover of violence in Turkey, which has reportedly amassed troops on its border with Iraq, or in Saudi Arabia, home to a series of recent al Qaeda attacks, including the 2003 bombing of a residential compound in Riyadh. But the index’s experts fear for someone else in Iraq’s backyard. Nearly half said that Jordan is the neighbor most likely to experience a spillover of violence from Iraq—more than twice as many who pinpointed any other country. The Hashemite Kingdom was already a target for terrorists working from Iraq with the 2005 Amman hotel bombings, and it now hosts the second-largest Iraqi refugee population. With porous borders and its own home-grown Islamist movement, it’s a volatile mix that may be primed to explode.

Deciphering the Chatter

The U.S. presidential race is being dominated by foreign-policy issues. So how does the rhetoric of the candidates match up to the opinions of the country’s most respected international affairs experts? Here’s a look.

Sen. Hillary Clinton: “I believe we are safer than we were.”--June 3, 2007

Terrorism Index Experts: A huge majority, 91 percent, believe the world is growing more dangerous for Americans and the United States.

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: “I support the president’s increase in troops. Even more importantly, I support the change in strategy. . . .”--Jan. 10, 2007

Terrorism Index Experts: The majority, 83 percent, believe the surge has had either a negative impact or no impact at all on the war in Iraq.

Sen. John McCain: “We lose this war and come home, they’ll follow us home.”--March 10, 2007

Terrorism Index Experts: Nearly 9 in 10 say that they do not believe terrorist attacks would occur inside the United States as the result of a withdrawal from Iraq.

Sen. Barack Obama: “We must maintain the isolation of Hamas.”--March 2, 2007

Terrorism Index Experts: More than 70 percent believe the United States should engage, not isolate, Hamas.

Gov. Mitt Romney: “This is a time . . . to increase our diplomatic isolation of Iran.”--Feb. 18, 2007

Terrorism Index Experts: Eight in 10 support engaging in bilateral dialogue with Tehran over its nuclear program.

Sen. John Edwards: “[Congress] should correct its mistake and use its constitutional funding power to force an immediate withdrawal from Iraq.”--July 10, 2007

Terrorism Index Experts: Almost 80 percent of the experts oppose an immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq.

No Love from Russia

With so many foreign-policy headaches these days, Washington could use some friends to lean on. According to the index’s experts, don’t look to Moscow. When asked to choose the U.S. ally that least serves U.S. interests, 34 percent chose Russia, far ahead of complicated friends such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. What makes Russia an ally hardly worth the effort? The Kremlin frequently speaks out against the war in Iraq, denounces U.S. leadership in the world, and has refused to back the toughest international sanctions against Iran. Nor does it help that Russian President Vladimir Putin has increasingly played the strongman, cracking down on the press or any other group with the courage to question his leadership. It may be enough to make a superpower think carefully about the company it keeps.

Want to Know More?

The National Counterterrorism Center tracks cases of terrorist activity around the world in its annual Report on Incidents of Terrorism, available on its Web site. Lee Hamilton, Bruce Hoffman, Paul Pillar, and other terrorism experts assess the progress of the war on terror in State of the Struggle: Report on the Battle Against Global Terrorism (Washington: Council on Global Terrorism, 2006).

Jessica T. Mathews offered a plan for how to move forward in Iraq in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, in “The Situation in Iraq” (July 18, 2007), available on the Web site of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. For two other viewpoints on how to fix the situation in Iraq, see “The New Strategy in Iraq,” by Frederick W. Kagan and Kimberly Kagan (The Weekly Standard, July 9, 2007), and Strategic Reset: Reclaiming Control of U.S. Security in the Middle East, by Brian Katulis, Lawrence J. Korb, and Peter Juul (Washington: Center for American Progress, 2007). Benjamin Friedman offers a skeptical look at the U.S. government’s ability to prevent terrorist attacks at home in “Think Again: Homeland Security” (FOREIGN POLICY, July/August 2005). Pakistan’s involvement in the war on terror is the subject of Zahid Hussain’s Frontline Pakistan: The Struggle with Militant Islam (New York: Columbia University Press, 2007).

Experts Available for Comment

Contact:
(FP) Jeff Marn, Media Relations Manager / (202) 939-2242 / jmarn@CarnegieEndowment.org

(CAP) Daniella Léger, Vice President of Communications / (202) 741-6258 / DLeger@americanprogress.org

Foreign Policy magazine

William J. Dobson
Managing Editor

William J. Dobson became FP’s managing editor in 2004. He is responsible for setting the editorial direction of the magazine, as well as editing and commissioning feature articles, reviews, and essays. Prior to joining FP, he served as Newsweek International’s Senior Editor for Asia and as an associate editor at Foreign Affairs. While at Newsweek, he supervised coverage that was honored for overall general excellence by the Society of Asia Publishers in 2003 and 2004. Since 2004, FP has been nominated for a National Magazine Award three years in a row—the only publication of its size to be so honored—and in 2007, FOREIGN POLICY won the overall award for General Excellence in its circulation category.

Mr. Dobson has written for Foreign Policy, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Boston Globe, and The New Republic. He is a regular source of commentary and analysis for a variety of news outlets, including CNN, CBS, MSNBC, and NPR. Mr. Dobson was named a 2006 Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum and is a 1994 Truman Scholar. He holds a law degree from Harvard Law School and a Master’s degree in East Asian Studies from Harvard University. He received his bachelor’s degree in history, summa cum laude, from Middlebury College.

Michael C. Boyer
Senior Editor

Mike Boyer joined FP in July 2001. He commissions and edits feature articles, arguments, and department pieces. He also reports and writes for the magazine. Previously, Mr. Boyer served on the legislative staff of U.S. Sen. Chuck Hagel, where he covered foreign relations. He was assistant to the candidate on Hagel’s first Senate campaign in 1996, during which time he traveled extensively with the senator on the campaign trail.

Mr. Boyer’s writing on international affairs has appeared in National Geographic, the Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Washington Monthly, The New Republic, and the Weekly Standard online, among other publications. He has appeared as a commentator on television and radio, including CNN International, CBS Sunday Morning, Al Jazeera, National Public Radio, and in numerous print media outlets. A native of Omaha, Nebraska, he earned a bachelor’s degree in political science from Colorado College and a Master’s degree in the history of international relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Center for American Progress

Caroline Wadhams
National Security Senior Policy Analyst

Caroline Wadhams is a Senior Policy Analyst for National Security at the Center for American Progress. Prior to joining the Center, she served as a Legislative Assistant for Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) on foreign-policy issues. Wadhams also worked at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C., as the Assistant Director for the Meetings Program and in New York as a Research Associate on national security issues. Prior to the Council on Foreign Relations, she worked at ABC News in New York. Her overseas experience includes work with the International Rescue Committee in Sierra Leone and two years in Ecuador and Chile. She received a Master’s degree in international relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and is a Term Member at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Peter Rundlet
Vice President for National Security and International Policy

Peter Rundlet is Vice President for National Security and International Affairs at the Center for American Progress. Prior to joining American Progress, Peter was Counsel for the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (the 9/11 Commission), where he focused on domestic intelligence and law enforcement policy, including related civil liberties issues. In 1997, Peter was selected to be a White House Fellow, serving in the Office of the Chief of Staff to the President. After his fellowship year, he was appointed Associate Counsel to the President and was responsible for a range of policy and constitutional law issues until the end of the Clinton administration.

After his White House tenure, Peter was an attorney in the political law department of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom. Earlier in his career, Peter received the Skadden Public Interest Law Fellowship and was an Assistant Counsel for the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund, where he litigated voting rights, housing, school desegregation, and employment discrimination cases. Peter was also a Peace Corps Volunteer in Honduras. He received his undergraduate degree from Brown University, a Master's degree from the Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy at Tufts University, and a law degree from the University of Pennsylvania Law School.

Brian Katulis
Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress

Brian Katulis is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress. At the Center, his work examines U.S. national security policy in the Middle East with a focus on Iraq. He is also a Senior Advisor to the Center’s Middle East Progress project.

Prior to joining the Center, Katulis lived and worked in the Middle East for the National Democratic Institute and Freedom House, including projects in Egypt, Iraq, and the Palestinian territories. From 2000 to 2003, he worked as a senior associate at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. He has published articles in the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, and the Christian Science Monitor, among other publications. Katulis received a graduate degree from Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School for Public and International Affairs.

Contact:
(FP) Jeff Marn, Media Relations Manager / (202) 939-2242 / jmarn@CarnegieEndowment.org

(CAP) Daniella Léger, Vice President for Communications / (202) 741-6258 / DLeger@americanprogress.org

The Terrorism Index

Majority of America’s Foreign-Policy Experts Now Say That the Troop Surge Is Failing in Iraq, Call for a U.S. Troop Withdrawal in 18 Months

Pakistan Most Likely Country to Become Stronghold for al Qaeda; Russia is Least Valuable U.S. Ally

A majority of America’s foreign-policy experts now hold a negative view of the White House’s “troop surge” strategy in Iraq, and two thirds support a redeployment of troops in the next 18 months, according to a bipartisan survey produced by Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for American Progress.

The third Foreign Policy/Center for American Progress Terrorism Index—published in the September/October issue of Foreign Policy magazine and available today at www.ForeignPolicy.com and www.AmericanProgress.org—is the first comprehensive attempt to determine the American foreign-policy establishment’s assessment of how the United States is fighting the war on terror.

Of the more than 100 foreign-policy experts (both liberals and conservatives) surveyed, 53 percent now say that the surge is having a negative impact—an increase of 22 percentage points in just the past six months. Nearly all of the experts (92 percent) believe that the war in Iraq is having a negative impact on U.S. national security.

A bipartisan majority (68 percent) now say that the United States should redeploy troops from Iraq in the next 18 months, though most oppose an immediate withdrawal. Surprisingly, more conservatives (25 percent) called for an immediate pullout than liberals or moderates.

Overall, nearly all of the experts (91 percent) say that the world is becoming more dangerous for Americans and report that the country is not winning the war on terror (84 percent). More than 80 percent predict a 9/11-scale terrorist attack on the United States in the next 10 years.

Pakistan was named as the country most likely to become the next al Qaeda stronghold, ahead of Iraq. Seventy-five percent also said that Pakistan—home to A.Q. Kahn’s now infamous nuclear black market ring—was the most likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists in the near future.

But when the experts were asked to name the ally that least serves U.S. security interests, Pakistan placed second to Russia, with Moscow’s consistent criticism of the United States, refusal to back tougher sanctions against Iran, and the increasingly authoritarian tendencies of President Vladimir Putin likely weighing on the experts’ minds.

For complete survey results, methodology, list of participants, and experts available for comment, visit www.ForeignPolicy.com and www.AmericanProgress.org.

About the Foreign Policy/Center for American Progress Terrorism Index

The Terrorism Index is survey of more than 100 of America’s top foreign-policy experts—including two former secretaries of state, a national security advisor, intelligence officers, and senior military leaders—and represents the first comprehensive attempt to determine the U.S. foreign-policy establishment’s assessment of how the United States is fighting the war on terror.

The index is based on the results of a survey designed by the Center for American Progress and Foreign Policy. Participants in the survey were selected by Foreign Policy and the Center for American Progress for their expertise in terrorism and U.S. national security. No one currently working in an official U.S. government capacity was invited to participate.

The nonscientific survey was administered online from May 23-June 26, 2007. Respondents were asked to self-identify their ideological bias from choices across a spectrum: very conservative, conservative, somewhat conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal, liberal, and very liberal. Twenty-five people identified themselves as some level of conservative, 39 identified as moderate, and 44 identified as some level of liberal. To ensure balance, the survey was weighted according to ideology to make the number of weighted liberal respondents equal to the number of conservative respondents. Moderate and conservative respondents remained unweighted.