AP / Sydney Morning Herald: Hezbollah holds 'banner of victory'

Hezbollah holds 'banner of victory'

August 16, 2006

The leaders of Iran and Syria cheered Hezbollah "defeated" Israel in their 34-day war, with the Iranian president telling a crowd that "God's promises have come true" and the United States' plans to reshape the Middle East had been ruined.

Tehran and Damascus may be the biggest winners from the 34 days of fighting in Lebanon, buoyed by the ability of their protege, Hizbollah, to withstand Israel's punishing assaults - and the new, widespread popularity of the guerrillas across the Middle East.

Hezbollah has been left hampered by the war's resolution: The Lebanese army and international troops are to deploy in southern Lebanon, undermining the guerrillas' domination of the territory and its ability to attack Israel.

But the Shi'ite Muslim movement appeared to be strengthened inside Lebanon - and Syria and Iran ridiculed US hopes for eliminating the guerrillas and belittled Israel's high-tech military as useless against Hizbollah.

"The Middle East they (the Americans) aspire to ... has become an illusion," Syria's Bashar Assad said in a speech in Damascus.

"We tell them (Israelis) that after tasting humiliation in the latest battles, your weapons are not going to protect you - not your planes, or missiles or even your nuclear bombs ... The future generations in the Arab world will find a way to defeat Israel," Assad added.

A few hours later, Iran's fiery leader, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, saluted Hezbollah for hoisting "the banner of victory" over Israel.

"God's promises have come true," Ahmadinejad told a huge crowd in Arbadil in northwestern Iran. "On one side, its corrupt powers of the criminal US and Britain and the Zionists .... with modern bombs and planes. And on the other side is a group of pious youth relying on God."

He said Hizbollah's fight had foiled US-Israeli plans to dominate the region.

Analysts in the region say both countries now feel stronger in their own individual disputes with the West, and that the alliance of their hard-line governments is only stronger now, in contrast to the Mideast bloc of pro-US governments.

"Both Syria and Iran have achieved a political victory," said Dawood al-Shirian, a Saudi hosts a talk show on Dubai TV. "Lebanon once again has paid a heavy price and Syria and Iran have once again taken credit."

Iran may feel its bargaining hand has become stronger as the August 31 deadline the UN has given it to halt its uranium enrichment activities approaches. Iran is due to announce on August 22 its reply to a package of incentives offered by the US and Europe aimed at enticing it to suspend enrichment.

Mostly Shi'ite, non-Arab Iran may also try to ride on the new wave of popularity of the Shi'ite Hezbollah group in the region to make inroads into the Arab Sunni world. The popularity of Hizbollah's chief, Hasan Nasrallah, has grown even among Sunnis in Saudi Arabia, whose strict school of Islam considers Shi'ites as heretics.

In Nasrallah, Iran can find a mouthpiece more attractive in the Arab world than Tehran's own leaders. Arab countries - particularly in the Gulf - are wary of Iran and its nuclear program, and the stronger Iran is seen the more nervous it makes its regional rivals.

"Whereas Nasrallah, even though he's a Shi'ite, he's an Arab, he speaks in Arabic ... he doesn't give a particularly Shi'ite message," a senior US official in Washington said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Syria, on the other hand, may feel that it can play a more influential role after years of isolation, increased by international pressure on it since last year's assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, widely blamed on Syria although Damascus has denied any link.

Arab, US and Western diplomats generally snubbed Damascus during negotiations over a resolution to the Lebanon fighting - but they may have to turn to Syria in the next big tussle, the issue of disarming Hizbollah.

A strong Hezbollah also gives Damascus a window to regain the influence it lost when it withdrew from Lebanon last year.

In his speech, Assad lashed out at Arab regimes that have criticised Hezbollah for kidnapping two Israeli soldiers on July 12 and starting the war. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan - all allies of the United States - were against Hizbollah's actions at the start of the conflict.

"We do not ask anyone to fight with us or for us ... But he should at least not adopt the enemy's views," Assad said.

Oqab Sakr, a Lebanese analyst, said Assad's remarks were tantamount to "a final divorce from the Arab regimes and a full marriage with Iran".

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are already starting to push back. Saudi Arabia's crown prince met with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki in Riyadh and underlined that the UN ceasefire resolution, which calls for Hizbollah's eventual disarming, be implemented.

A front page editorial of a state-run Egyptian daily, meanwhile, derided Assad's speech - a rare overt criticism by one Arab government of another.

The editorial in the Al-Gomhuria daily scoffed at Assad, saying he was celebrating "a victory scored by others".

"Your speech was untimely because you poured more gas on the fire," the editorial said, addressing Assad. "Duplicity no longer works ... You should be prepared now for political and economic pressure put on you because of this speech."

In Washington, the US dismissed the claims of victory as shameful blustering.

"It is terrible that the president of Iran is trying to take advantage of this tragedy," David Welch, a senior State Department official, said.

Both Iran and Syria are "trying to pile on popular emotion and anger at a time of tragedy for their own selfish advantage," the assistant secretary of state said at a news conference.

"I think it is a sad situation when leaders of other countries can stand on this rubble" that is the aftermath of the war in Lebanon and proclaim their vision, Welch said.

Even as the big guns had barely fallen silent in Lebanon, President George W.Bush and the State Department found cause for cheer in the outcome of the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah militia.

With 15,000 Lebanese troops and another 15,000 foreign troops perhaps only weeks away from deployment near the border with Israel, Bush said yesterday that Hezbollah no longer could keep Lebanon from becoming a democracy.