WP : The Final Option: A Washington-Tehran Dialogue

The Final Option: A Washington-Tehran Dialogue

By Bashir Goth | August 23, 2006

Somalia/United Arab Emirates - Why does Iran insist on rebuffing the overtures of the international community? I suspect it is because Iran has already succeeded in producing highly enriched uranium and is closer than we think to making a nuclear bomb.

Nuclear connoisseurs say that Iran needs at least five years to produce a crude nuclear bomb. That is assuming we can rely on the intelligence information available about the current status of the Iranian nuclear program. But the fact that Iran has built its nuclear capability in secret over 18 years before dissidents exposed it in 2002 says much about the accuracy of the available intelligence information.

Currently buoyed up by what they see as an Iranian-backed Hezbollah victory against Israel in Lebanon and betting on the region's growing anger against Washington's bungled policies in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran definitely knows that the Bush administration cannot afford another miscalculated adventure in the region. By presenting a deftly drafted response, Iran may be able to easily split the opinion of the five permanent Security Council members. This is why a significant breakthrough cannot be expected in Iran's delayed response to the generous incentives of the five permanent Security Council members plus Germany.

The question therefore is: How will Washington and its allies respond? Will sanctions be the answer as already threatened by the U.S administration? In my opinion, sanctions are what Iran is bidding for. They know sanctions will galvanize the Iranian people behind the hardliner leadership, will push oil prices to even higher limits, and will buy Iran more time to carry on with its enrichment work without fear of IAEA supervision. Experience in Iraq and North Korea have taught us that sanctions only hurt the poor masses but rarely hinder the leadership's megalomaniac programs.

It is a common knowledge also that the Middle East cannot sustain more military intervention. Such a move would only fuel the swelling anger of the region's people against the United States and win more recruits for the extremist forces. The situation demands a wholly new and ground shaking approach that will win hearts and minds for Washington and stop Iran's nuclear ambitions. This could be direct Washington-Tehran talks.

This may sound like an absurd and simplistic view but one should know that the Iranian regime's hardline rhetoric is nothing more than a child's tantrum as he cries for attention. By giving such attention, in addition to the incentives already given under the 5+1 proposals, Iran will be hard-pressed to reject it. Rejecting such an overture will not only cost Iran the support of its friends in the UNSC but also the support of its people and neighbors. Such a proposal will also improve Washington's battered image in the region and free its hands to be tougher with Iran.