Kashmir Herald : Pakistan's Russian Roulette of Terrorism

Pakistan's Russian Roulette of Terrorism

Foreign policy analyst Subodh Atal warns that the West is playing a dangerous game in Pakistan.

October 13, 2006

Even as the Taliban regain strength in Afghanistan and wage an insurgency nearly as fierce as in Iraq, the hub of terrorism in the subcontinent has shifted to Pakistan. A series of international terrorism plots uncovered in the U.S., U.K. and Australia has been hatched in, or linked to Pakistan. In the most notorious such plot, British police arrested several suspects planning to use liquid explosives aboard commercial airliners flying from Britain to the United States.

The inability or unwillingness of Pakistani authorities to clamp down on extremist Islam is evident in a recent deal signed by the Pakistani authorities and local militias in Waziristan, which cedes the key province bordering Pakistan to pro-Taliban forces. The deal creates a two-pronged threat -- enabling freer passage to Taliban extremists across the Afghan border, and creating potential sanctuaries for Al Qaeda-related international terrorists. To the east, Pakistani extremist groups continue to foster attacks in Indian Kashmir as well as major cities across the rest of India. The links among the extremist groups, hard-line clerics and Pakistan's military and intelligence services, in a nation infiltrated by Taliban and Al Qaeda, imply that Pakistan could continue to serve as a nucleus for international terrorism activity.

Among the most dangerous of the Pakistani extremist groups are Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad. Laskhar-e-Toiba, was formed in 1986 as a brainchild of Abdullah Azzam, Osama Bin Laden's political and religious mentor. The group's sprawling headquarters complex near Lahore in eastern Pakistan is "a coordination center for its organizational, jihadi and educational activities", as reported in the Jamestown Foundation in 2005. Until 2001, the complex was the venue for immense annual gatherings attended by hundreds of jihadi. Members of the group are reported to have sheltered Al Qaeda operatives fleeing post-9/11 operations in Afghanistan in late 2001 and early 2002. Lashkar imprints have been uncovered in terrorist attacks in major cities across India, as well as a number of plots in countries from Australia to the United States, where arrests and convictions in Virginia and California confirm the group's intercontinental reach.

Pakistani journalist Amir Mir, in his book The True Face of Jehadis: Inside Pakistan's Network of Terror, points out that Laskhar-e-Toiba is a favorite of the ISI among all the terrorist groups operating in Pakistan. Mir's book describes Lashkar activists "distributing pamphlets and periodicals preaching the virtues of jehad in Kashmir, Palestine, Chechnya, Kosovo and Eritrea, besides vowing to plant the flag of Islam in Washington, Tel Aviv and New Delhi."

Jaish founder Masood Azhar, established the group in 2002 after his release by India in return for passengers of a hijacked Indian Airlines jet, vowing to destroy the United States and India. Azhar is related by marriage to Rashid Rauf, a key suspect in the London airliner bombing plot. Another notorious member of the group, Sheikh Saeed Omar, may be a critical link tying together Pakistani extremist groups, Al Qaeda and the Pakistani intelligence services. Credible reports suggests Omar's role in the financing of the 9/11 hijackers. International counter-terrorism agencies have been denied access to Omar, who was jailed in Pakistan after being tied to the high profile killing of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl.

The infiltration of Pakistan's state by extremists goes far beyond the presence of a few international terrorist groups, however. Islamic radicals have co-opted political parties, including some allied to Musharraf himself, as well as social networks, charities, and businesses. Numerous reports point towards radical links of the nation's military and intelligence services. Noted columnist Steve Coll described this infrastructure as part of "what Pakistan has become as a state and society", in a discussion on the PBS show NewsHour.

Compounding Pakistan's terrorism problem is the nation's history of proliferation of nuclear weapons technology to a number of unstable nations, including Iran, Libya and North Korea. Such activities, which amount to the dangerous trading of the nation's strategic arsenal, must have had at least tacit approval and knowledge of the establishment. Such fears are reinforced by reports that Pakistani nuclear scientists have had contacts with both Osama Bin Laden and Lashkar-e-Toiba.

While intense international counter-terrorism efforts strive to track down and stop plots originating out of Pakistan, the sheer number of such plots pose a significant threat. Given the nation's explosive mix of Islamic extremism intertwined with state institutions, the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and a pattern of nuclear proliferation, the game of Russian roulette being played out in Pakistan is perhaps the most dangerous counter-terrorism challenge in the world today.

Since 9/11, the United States has depended on the Musharraf regime for tackling the terrorism problem originating from Pakistan. However, under Musharraf's rule, the Pakistani military has continued to hold sway over the nation's politics with Islamist support, and little progress has been made towards moving the country away from its extremist path. Husain Haqqani, Director of the Center of International Relations at Boston University, and ex-advisor to several Pakistani prime ministers describes the extent of the problem in his book, Pakistan, Between Mosque and Military. According to Haqqani, "Under military leadership, Pakistan has defined its national objective as wresting Kashmir from India and in recent years, establishing a client regime in Afghanistan. Unless Islamabad's objectives are redefined as focusing on economic prosperity and popular participation in governance -- which the military as an institution remains reluctant to do -- the state will continue to turn to Islam as a national unifier."

Unquestioning western support, including considerable financial and military aid, has acted as an enabler for Musharraf and the Pakistan military to continue to steer the nation down the same path. Many critical long-term goals, such as rooting out of intolerance from Pakistani madrassa and public school curricula, have not been realized five years after 9/11, even as extremist groups tied to the Al Qaeda and Taleban remain entrenched in the country.

Without a transitioning back towards democracy, and away from extremism and domination of the military, Pakistan will continue to act as a hub of international terrorism and a destabilizing influence in the region. As Haqqani points out in his book, "The United States has sought short term gains from its relationship with Pakistan, inadvertently accentuating that country's problems in the process." A sustained end to the extremism and terrorism centered in Pakistan may require a significant overhaul of policy. Specifically, the United States should move away from its over-dependence on a general who has failed to deliver on many of his promises, and instead support the nation's mainstream parties that have been sidelined since Musharraf's coup in 1999. Washington and others should also consider tying external aid to specific objectives such as the closing down of terrorist camps and measurable action against Taliban militants.

Subodh Atal is an independent foreign policy analyst based near Washington, D.C.