Chicago Tribune : Pakistani army's stature takes hit

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Pakistani army's stature takes hit

Popular discontent could force Musharraf to rethink military's role in war on terror

By Kim Barker | Tribune foreign correspondent | October 9, 2007

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — As the country struggles with its political crisis, Pakistan's powerful army—a highly trained force that has run the nation for most of its history—is facing a series of challenges that could bode poorly for its crucial role in the U.S.-led war on terror.

The commander in chief, President Pervez Musharraf, has been so mired in his effort to maintain power that he has been distracted from the war against Islamic militants, many analysts say. The general won another 5-year presidential term Saturday in a parliament vote but faces a challenge to his eligibility in a case the Supreme Court may not decide for weeks.

The military increasingly has been targeted by suicide bombings, even near its well-protected headquarters in Rawalpindi, just outside Islamabad. The siege by commandos of a militants' mosque in Islamabad in July intensified public resentment of anyone in uniform, and soldiers have been advised to be careful in public, vary their routes to work and avoid wearing their uniforms on the streets.

In battles against Al Qaeda-linked militants who have found shelter in Pakistan, more than 220 soldiers have been killed in the past three months. About 300 soldiers have surrendered to pro-Taliban militants in the past six weeks, including 245 captured Aug. 30.

"That's a very good battalion that put down their arms," said Hamid Gul, who once headed Pakistan's powerful Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency.

"They didn't fire a shot. Why is that? They didn't want to fire on their own people. So they have been taken as guests of their own brothers. They are eating very well. Lovely fat-tailed sheep are being slaughtered for them," Gul said.

The army has long been a symbol of pride in Pakistan, a force capable of battling rival India, and a de facto political party. Defense here has been paramount, so much so that Pakistan built a nuclear weapon before providing its people with clean drinking water.

Tarred by Musharraf's troubles

Military rulers have run Pakistan for more than half of its 60 years, but none has left power gracefully. Musharraf, who seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999, is struggling to hold onto it amid a plunge in popularity, and disgust with military rule has translated into dislike for the army.

"There has been a deterioration of civilian-military relations, no doubt," Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad, the country's military spokesman, said in an interview. But "we are confident that things are going to improve."

But hopes for improvement may be stymied by U.S. pressure on Musharraf to lead an unpopular fight against Islamic militants along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. A U.S. law enacted this year links American aid to Pakistan's performance in the war on terror. The U.S. has given Pakistan at least $10 billion, mainly in military aid, since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

So far, the government's campaign to control the militants has had little success in the remote semiautonomous regions, which follow tribal rather than national laws. Sending in 80,000 soldiers didn't work. Neither did government truces with pro-Taliban elders.

At present, 100,000 soldiers are stationed in the mountainous terrain, but they are hardly welcome visitors in the region. A local religious ruling has even decreed that soldiers who die fighting militants should not receive Islamic funerals.

Fighting has intensified in these areas recently, including Sunday, when at least 48 pro-Taliban militants and 20 soldiers were killed in the tribal belt, the army said. The army confirmed Monday that 50 more soldiers are missing.

Several retired Pakistani army officers and politicians said pressure on the army and Musharraf could force him to rethink Pakistan's role in the war on terror.

"The army is helpless," said Talat Masood, a retired army general and political analyst. "It's not achieving any military results in the tribal belts. [Army leaders] won't change policy entirely, but they may review it."

It's unclear how far Musharraf, who has survived three attempts on his life, can continue to push against militants. In a potentially ominous development, Osama bin Laden declared war on Musharraf in an audiotape released last month.

Arshad said Pakistan would continue to fight. "We are doing whatever is necessary," he said.

Disdain for Musharraf and the army is almost palpable in many parts of Pakistan. A poll released last month indicated that bin Laden was more popular than Musharraf.

"I think the army would rather be out of politics," said one army officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Now, we get blamed for everything that goes wrong."

After the mosque raid in July, suicide bombings targeting the army increased dramatically. When bombings hit military targets Sept. 4 in Rawalpindi—one at a market where soldiers shopped, another in a Defense Ministry bus—witnesses were angrier at the military than the bombers who killed 25 people. The army was accused of ignoring injured civilians.

Embarrassing surrender

Although the suicide bombs are devastating for the army, the surrender of troops in the tribal areas is almost worse, according to retired army officers. Several groups have been taken hostage, but the most puzzling incident was on Aug. 30, when militants captured 245 soldiers and 16 army vehicles in the South Waziristan tribal area.

Officials said it still is unclear what happened. Some soldiers were regular army, while others were from the tribal areas and could have been related to the militants.

Last month, 26 soldiers were released after negotiations. Arshad denied media reports that the army had pulled out of two posts in the tribal areas in exchange for the soldiers. The militants are now demanding to trade the other captured soldiers for 30 militants held by the government.

Some analysts and tribal area residents said the soldiers may have surrendered because they just didn't want to fight.

"They're fighting their own people," said Mohsin Ali Khan, a politician from the tribal area next to Waziristan. "If the army was making any real progress, you would not see people disappearing every day."

kbarker@tribune.com

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