Chicago Tribune : Chertoff bases 'gut feeling' on history, Al Qaeda statements

Homeland Security chief warns of 'increased risk’
Chertoff bases 'gut feeling' on history, Al Qaeda statements

By E.A. Torriero | Tribune staff reporter | July 11, 2007

Fearing complacency among the American people over possible terror threats, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said in Chicago Tuesday that the nation faces a heightened chance of an attack this summer.

"I believe we are entering a period this summer of increased risk," Chertoff told the Chicago Tribune's editorial board in an unusually blunt and frank assessment of America's terror threat level.

"Summertime seems to be appealing to them," he said of al-Qaeda. "We do worry that they are rebuilding their activities."

Still, Chertoff said there are not enough indications of an imminent plot to raise the current threat levels nationwide. And he indicated that his remarks were based on "a gut feeling" formed by past seasonal patterns of terrorist attacks, recent al-Qaeda statements, and intelligence he did not disclose.

There is an assessment "not of a specific threat, but of increased vulnerability," he added.

There have been reports already that suggest intelligence warnings at a similar level to the summer before Sept. 11, 2001 and that al-Qaeda may be mobilizing.

In recent days, ABC news reported that a secret law enforcement report prepared for homeland security warns that al-Qaeda is preparing a "spectacular" summer attack. On Tuesday, ABC News also reported that "new intelligence suggests a small al-Qaeda cell is on its way to the United States, or may already be here."

Chertoff sternly echoed those sentiments at the Tribune.

"We've seen a lot more public statements from Al Qaeda," he said. "There are a lot of reasons to speculate about that but one reason that occurs to me is that they're feeling more comfortable and raising expectations.

"We could easily be attacked," Chertoff added. "The intent to attack us remains as strong as it was on Sept. 10, 2001."

The dire warnings and Chertoff's comments come as the Bush administration faces political and business opposition over its immigration and border policies that have security implications.

With stiff blowback on those issues, the administration has been unsuccessful in efforts to enact broader security measures - ones opponents fear are too costly, unnecessary and infringe on people's rights.

In a wide-ranging interview with the Tribune that lasted more than an hour, Chertoff said, too, that the recent failure of Congress to pass an immigration bill has negative repercussions for homeland security and will lead to continued federal crackdowns on illegal immigrants.

Resistance has built as well, he said, from business and travel interests blocking his proposals to tighten security at the borders - especially at the crossings with Canada.

In the end, Chertoff argued, Americans must soon decide between enduring greater inconvenience and costs or allowing terrorists easier access to the borders. He warned against increasing resistence to security measures based on comfort and self-centered motives.

"If you get to complacency then I guarantee you we will lose the race with the terrorists," he said.

A recent terror plot in London and Scotland has America's defense system on alert, Chertoff said. He urged Americans to be attentive if something appears suspicious.

"If you look at that picture you see an enemy that is improving itself just as we're improving ourselves," he said. "They can't afford to remain static just as we can't afford to remain static."

On a local level, Chertoff cited Chicago's technologically savvy police department and its use of street-corner, blue-lighted cameras as a blueprint for strong homeland security.

"I think the use of cameras here and other technologies is a model for the country," he said.

Over the next 18 months, as the Bush administration draws to a close, Chertoff said he plans to put security tradeoff options before the American public.

"The public has to make the choices," he said.

If border crossings are not tightened with stricter document regulation because of economic oppositions from business interests, then Chertoff predicts possible dire consequences.

"What do you think is going to happen to your business when a guy comes across the border with a phony document and blows up a target in Buffalo or Detroit?" he asked. "Do you think the American public is then going to allow the border to remain open?"

There will be security repercussions from Congress' failure to pass immigration reform. Chertoff hoped granting a path to citizenship to illegal immigrants would cut away "the tall grass" hiding criminal elements among the undocumented workers.

But now, Chertoff said, his agency must uphold current laws and that means a further crackdown on workplaces.

"We are going to do more law enforcement actions," he said.

Conceding the raids are "going to be ugly" and tear parents from their children who wonder why they have not returned from work, Chertoff warned: "the consequences are going to be tough from an economic and humanitarian standpoint."

Noting that he was disappointed at Congress' failure to pass a bill, Chertoff singled out committees that included members like Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Sen. Max Baucus (D-Montana) as impediments to his homeland security initiatives.

Letters released Tuesday to the Tribune from Grassley's office reveal a bickering back and forth between Chertoff and the senators in June. The senators wrote that Chertoff was misleading in his characterization of their efforts to amend the immigration bill. Their intention, they said, was to avoid burdening employers with expensive checks of all employees and or force the release of tax information on employees.

With the bill tabled, Chertoff said he plans to now concentrate on a variety of security plans including filling in security gaps by more closely monitoring private aircraft entering the United States and intensifying coastal checks in less secure areas outside of the strictly-patrolled ports.

"We have done a lot to degrade the enemy's capability," he said. "But the enemy has also done a lot to retool its capability...It leads me to feel we ought to be more vigilant."

etorriero@tribune.com