NYT : Primary Loss and Furor Over Ex-Pastor Hurt Obama in Poll

Primary Loss and Furor Over Ex-Pastor Hurt Obama in Poll

By ROBIN TONER and MEGAN THEE | April 30, 2008

WASHINGTON — Senator Barack Obama’s aura of inevitability in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination has diminished in the wake of his loss in the Pennsylvania primary and the furor over his former pastor, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

The poll was conducted Friday through Tuesday, largely before Mr. Obama’s news conference on Tuesday denouncing his former pastor, Reverend Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., and may not fully capture the impact of that controversy or the response.

But the survey found that Mr. Obama, whose lead in the race for the delegates needed to secure the nomination has given him a commanding position over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton since February, is now perceived to be in a much tighter fight. Fifty-one percent of Democratic voters say they expect Mr. Obama to win their party’s nomination, down from 69 percent a month ago. Forty-eight percent of Democrats say Mr. Obama is the candidate with the best chance of beating Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, down from 56 percent a month ago.

Mr. Obama still holds an edge over Mrs. Clinton on several key measures; for example, 46 percent of the Democratic primary voters say he remains their choice for the nomination, while 38 percent preferred Mrs. Clinton, who has lost support among men in recent weeks. On that question, his margin actually grew, to eight from three points, over the past month.

Mr. Obama also has an advantage over Mrs. Clinton in ratings on honesty and integrity, in sharing the values of most Americans and in being less beholden to special interest groups.

But a month of political upheaval — including a nearly 10-point loss to Mrs. Clinton in Pennsylvania — has taken a toll, and not just on Mr. Obama: fifty-six percent of Democrats described their party as divided. In contrast, 60 percent of Republicans see their party as unified, a striking turnaround from the Republican turmoil at the start of the primary season.

Adding to the volatility of this race is the economy. Anxiety over these bread and butter issues, already high a month ago, has continued to climb. More than 4 in 10 voters cited the economy as the one issue they want the candidates to address, up from 30 percent in a CBS News Poll in mid-March. (Only the war in Iraq, cited by 17 percent, came close.)

Democrats see no early end to the Obama-Clinton battle, the poll found. About 7 in 10 Democratic voters predict that their party’s nominee will not be decided before the convention. And a plurality of voters say this will eventually hurt the Democratic Party’s chances against Mr. McCain in November.

“I don’t think either one of them would ever concede,” said Andrew Antonucci, a 66-year-old Democrat and retired firefighter from Arlington, Mass., in a follow-up interview. “It’ll go down to the wire.”

Robert Mobley, 28, a Democrat and motor coach operator in Orlando, Fla., said, “People can’t figure out who they want to choose. Sadly, I don’t think it’s really a political issue. I think it’s more like a “what kind of history do we want to set” issue. Do we want to break the race barrier or the gender barrier?”

Still, there is resistance to the idea of party leaders stepping in to resolve the fight. Even among Democrats who said a lengthy battle would hurt the party, a majority said the contest should continue until one candidate clearly wins the delegate count.

The poll was conducted as Mr. Wright dominated political news with a series of speeches and appearances; among other incendiary claims, he suggested that the United States was attacked by terrorists because it had itself engaged in terrorism.

The nationwide telephone poll was conducted with 1,065 adults, of whom 956 were registered to vote; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points over all, and plus or minus 5 percentage points among Democrats alone.

The survey suggests a very competitive race this November regardless of who the Democrats nominate. In a head-to-head race between Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain, both candidates are backed by 45 percent of the registered voters. In a race between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain, 48 percent back Mrs. Clinton, while 43 percent back Mr. McCain.

The weakening economy appears likely to play a critical role in the campaign, the poll found. The issue showed up in personal ways: As food and gas prices soar, more Americans say they are having a hard time saving or buying extras. Thirty-eight percent said they could do so in February, just 27 percent in the latest poll.

President Bush continues to get low marks on his overall job performance, with just 21 percent approving of his handling of the economy. Given those ratings, Mr. McCain faces a political challenge in establishing his own identity: About half of all voters say they expect him to continue Mr. Bush’s policies if elected, while another 2 in 10 say he will have policies that are even more conservative.

His challenge also shows up on foreign policy: A majority of voters said they preferred the next president to try to end the war in Iraq within the next few years; they overwhelmingly said it was more important to have a nominee who is flexible about withdrawing the troops, rather than someone committed to staying in Iraq until the United States succeeds.

On the Democratic side, Mr. Obama’s and Mrs. Clinton’s supporters are digging in, with two-thirds in each camp saying they “strongly support” their candidates. But Democrats are open to the idea of a Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton ticket. About 6 in 10 Democrats said they would like to see the eventual winner take the other candidate as their running mate.

Each of the three remaining presidential candidates has clear strengths and weaknesses. More voters have confidence in the ability of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain to “wisely” handle an international crisis than feel that way about Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain, on the other hand, get higher ratings than Mrs. Clinton when it comes to “having more honesty and integrity than most people in public life.”

And both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama edge out Mr. McCain when it comes to caring about the needs and problems of average Americans.

Republicans are already trying to portray Mr. Obama as a liberal who is outside the mainstream of American values, but the poll suggests that — at least so far — he is not viewed that way by most Americans. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters said they believe he shares their values, about the same number who felt that way about Mr. McCain (58 percent said Mrs. Clinton shared their values).

But Mr. Obama has vulnerabilities. Only 29 percent of registered voters said they considered him “very patriotic,” compared with 40 percent who described Mrs. Clinton that way. Mr. McCain, a former prisoner of war, was considered “very patriotic” by 70 percent of the registered voters.

The underlying political landscape continues to favor the Democrats, despite their current divisions. Over all, 52 percent of adults said they had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, compared with 33 percent who felt positively about the Republican Party.

The Democratic Party was viewed as better able to handle the economy, more likely share the respondent’s moral values, more likely to improve the health care system and more likely to make the right decisions about the war in Iraq. The Republicans, however, maintained their advantaged in ensuring that American military defenses were strong.

Marina Stefan, Marjorie Connelly and Dalia Sussman contributed reporting.